FEBRUARY 2001 AT-SEA OBSERVATIONS ON USS CARL VINSON
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Experiment Overview
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Observation Period Goals
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The knowledge gained in the previous three experiments was valuable and helped further the understanding of the METOC human systems domain, but the experiments were conducted in situations very different from the at-sea conditions of an operational aircraft carrier. In order to better interpret the experimental data collected in the previous studies, it was deemed important to go to sea on a carrier and observe forecasters in high-tempo operations.
Members of the METOC Human Systems research team were afforded the opportunity to go aboard the USS Carl Vinson during the pre-deployment exercise called COMPTUEX. The team met the ship in San Diego on 11 February 2001. The ship departed the harbor on 14 February and immediately commenced flight operations. During the four days at sea, airplanes operated continuously from approximately 7:00 AM to 10:00 PM each day.
The goals for this at-sea observation period were:
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- Observe METOC forecasters in an operational scenario
- Observe the tools used by METOC forecasters at sea
- Interview carrier-based METOC customers
- Compare ideas about the forecasters' mental model in a simulated scenario compared to the actual situation
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OA Division At-Sea
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On the Carl Vinson, as on each aircraft carrier, there is a METOC division that is given the title OA Division. A Lieutenant Commander METOC officer leads a typical carrier OA division and an enlisted Chief Petty Officer Aerographers Mate (AGC) assists him. The OA division has approximately 20 people, but only a small percentage is forecasters.
On the Carl Vinson there were four qualified forecasters, but only two stood duty as the Forecast Duty Officer (FDO). The other two were involved in leadership responsibilities.
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Notes and Lessons Learned
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COMMENTS ON FORECASTERS
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- The forecaster is on duty for 12 hours. There is no set schedule for when they do their local area forecast. The time to produce the forecast is about two hours, excluding downloading data before the forecasting task starts.
- Forecasters are very methodical and careful. They are constantly checking with the data sources, but they rarely perform inter-model comparisons.
- Forecasters seem to perform the duty alone. Very little help from the technician. No forecast discussion (with centers).
- Repetitive forecast messages: OPAREA (operational area) forecast, Admiral's brief, WEAX, TAF.
- Multi-tasking is a norm. Very busy environment.
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OBSERVATION OF THE FORECASTER'S MENTAL INTEGRATION
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- Have high confidence in mesoscale output. Experienced forecasters use the product constantly.
- New forecasters tend to use model in a verbatim fashion. Also, there is no systematic approach to the forecasting (no particular sequence in examining the data.). Not using the mesoscale model output as much.
- Forecasters knew their customers well. They knew individual customer's needs, for example, the CO, the navigator, and the mini boss.
- Key information is ceiling, visibility, icing, upper level winds, turbulence forecast.
- METOC charts (e.g., model output) are provided to the war fighters now as a drill-down capability. However, no detailed information provided (e.g., system passage timing).
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TOOLS USED BY METOC PERSONNEL
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- Web Sites: NPMOC San Diego, AFWIN, and FNMOC (Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center), which includes satellite, radar, DAMPS, surface station plots, forecast messages, and JTFX (joint military training exercise) Web page
- Observations texts (METAR from coastal stations)
- JMV/MetCast is download tool (used to view NOGAPS)
- Radar: NPMOC/Intellicast
- Rely on redundant capabilities (from teletype to SIPRNET to satellite images)
- Did not observe many TDA runs
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OBSERVATION TEAM METHODOLOGY
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- All observational techniques were very successful. Video camera may be less effective because of the space limitation and noise level.
- Real-time OA Division forecasting was quite different from the laboratory environment.
- Palm Pilot task coding will reveal a lot of information.
- Non-interfering basis worked well. It was very realistic.
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