July 1999 Experiment at NPMOF, San Diego
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Experiment Overview
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Observation Goals
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The overall goals of this experiment were to study and evaluate the workflow and visualization tools used by naval METOC personnel to construct the information they provide to support manned air strike missions. Additionally, there was an interest in understanding the effect of the new on-scene mesoscale modeling system (DAMPS, see Appendix A) that had been placed at the San Diego METOC facility in early 1999.
The initial objectives of the experiment were to:
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- Study how METOC forecasters establish and maintain a mental weather model
- Study the kinds of visualizations used by METOC personnel
- Discover the alternative workflows METOC personnel use when standard data sources are not available
- Study air strike forecasting with and without DAMPS, and with one instance of reconfiguring DAMPS to reflect a new strike location
- Test the methodology of videotaping in real-time and non-real-time situations
- Determine how METOC information could be incorporated into REDS (Real time Execution Decision Support System)
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Notes and Lessons Learned
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This experiment was an exploratory investigation to develop and test a methodology for observing METOC workflow prior to taking the methodology to sea. Based on this objective the experiment was a success. The METOC participants were able to complete the assigned task, and the tools used to monitor their activity were sufficient for the development of a workflow record.
This first experiment highlighted several key issues that required consideration in follow-on experiments. The experiment's participants must have a clear understanding of what they are asked to accomplish. The strike scenario briefing provided by the METOC Center's science officer (Appendix C) provided helpful motivation to the team in their mission. It was also observed that by keeping the forecast team's objective narrowly focused, the need for coaching from the observing team was minimized. Another lesson learned was that there was a clear need for subject matter experts (SME) to assist in interpreting the actions of the participants. In order to properly record the actions of the forecast team, the team members were required to verbalize their actions. A forecaster could, on occasion, be vague on what they were doing, or might assume that the observer knew implicitly the forecaster's actions. The SME's written observations (Tables 1-5) were critical in fleshing out the workflow.
Although this first experiment was mostly to test a methodology, several important aspects of the METOC workflow were extrapolated from the observations.
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- At the time of this experiment, the mesoscale knowledge level of most forecasters was very limited. Few forecasters thought of using the data available from DAMPS, even after prompting from an SME observer.
- There was a wide range of expertise levels between the METOC watch teams observed
- Input data needed for several tactical decision aids were not always known
- There appeared to be little standardization in how important forecast parameters are derived
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